Monday, September 5, 2011

The iPhone growth in the first half of 2011

226K addicts now get what they crave the most every day; a shiny new iPhone. Will the iPhone 5 affect this quarter's shipments?

A decline in iPhone shipments in the first quarter of the calendar year has been turned into a record-breaking second quarter for Apple. While Cupertino was close to break the 20M mark in the holiday quarter last year, Q2 2011 became the quarter that pulled it off. According to an official press release, 20.34 million iPhone units were shipped to distribution channels.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs is naturally pleased with the result, but stiff competition in the smartphone market makes no room for summer parties at Cupertino. "Right now, we're very focused and excited about bringing iOS 5 and iCloud to our users this fall," the CEO said in a statement. "We're thrilled to deliver our best quarter ever, with revenue up 82% and profits up 125%."

226 Million iPhone Units Shipping Every Day

A recent report suggested that the Verizon iPhone 4 has been a major success; a success that has ultimately affected RIM's BlackBerry smartphones, and basically given RIM executives a lot of heat from investors. On a global scale, Apple shipped 226K iPhone units per day during the second quarter of the calendar year, up from a little over 200K per day in the first quarter.

The iPhone growth in the first half of 2011 is insignificant compared to the Android growth in the same period, but let's not forget that Apple relies solely on the success of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS. In light of that, Apple has so far had an impressive year when it comes to iPhone shipments. Apple is also optimistic about the next quarter.

"Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $25 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $5.50," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's Chief Financial Officer.

Initial iPhone 5 Shipments

The iPhone plays a key role in driving sales for Apple. Out of the $28,571,000,000 Apple generated in the third fiscal quarter, $13,311,000,000 stemmed from iPhone sales, carrier agreements, services, and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories. That accounts for 47% of the total revenue during the quarter.

If we ignore the fact that the revenue number includes carrier agreements, services and accessories for a minute, Apple generated $655 per iPhone unit last quarter. Let's then say that the iPhone will also account for 47% of the total revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter. The Apple CFO then just indicated that Cupertino will ship 17.9 million iPhone units this quarter.

Interestingly, a source recently said that Apple was planning to ship 6-7 million iPhone 5 units in September. Does that mean Cupertino has cut shipments of the iPhone 4 and 3GS to 11-12 million units this quarter? Well, don't count on it, as the Apple CFO forecasted $23 billion in total revenue for the last quarter, and ended up with $29 billion when rounding up.

Since last summer, the CFO's forecast has in average been around $3 billion lower than what the company ended up delivering. As such, there's always the chance that Apple could be shipping around 20M iPhone units this quarter too. It'll basically boil down to expected market demand as we speak. Time will tell whether users are now starting to hold out for the iPhone 5.

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